geometric-only

K3 → C3

Civil population → "no fires into the port district"

The banded answer
25000K3 civil population · 35000–55000 persons65000
reported · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 1 · define the OEowner: J-2 civil affairs
Compiled into the world (civil_density channel)
regionvaluefrom knowledgeprovenance
civil_density · default -10 persons1
port_district 2500035000–55000 persons65000 K3 reported · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 1 · define the OEowner: J-2 civil affairs
The metric never reads it. C3's fires scorer counts FE-FALCON route legs inside the district — a purely geometric test. It never calls channelAt.
P2 × C3 with K3: fires = [1, 1]
P2 × C3 without K3: fires = [1, 1]
Identical. K3’s band has zero effect on the verdict — honest by design.
band-propagating

K6 → C4

FAC sortie rate → "amphibious group not over-exposed"

The banded answer
0K6 FAC sortie rate · 2–6 sorties/day8
assessed · lowassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
Compiled into the world (threat channel)
regionvaluefrom knowledgeprovenance
threat · default -10 threat index1
air_defence 58–14 km17 K7 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: J-2
fac_waters 02–6 sorties/day8 K6 assessed · lowassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
garrison 225300–450 effectives525 K4 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
mine_stock 1530–60 mines75 K12a assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2 red cell
The metric reads it. C4's exposure scorer walks FE-ANVIL's route and reads channelAt at each leg. In P1 the route enters fac_waters, so K6's band [2, 6] propagates into the exposure sum [12, 36] band-hours.
Drag: how wide is the K6 assessment? (G6 — real scorer, per frame)
route-dependent miss

K7 → C4

Air-defence envelope → the same C4, a different fate

The banded answer
5K7 air-defence envelope · 8–14 km17
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: J-2
Compiled into the threat channel — region air_defence
The exposure metric would read it. But:
P1  FE-ANVIL enters air_defence? no
P2  FE-ANVIL enters air_defence? no
The route never intersects the region, so K7's band has zero effect on C4. K7's real role is upstream: it shapes which plans are generated (stand off Carrick, or enter the envelope), not how they are scored.
Where it lands — P1/P2 × C3, C4 (the honest matrix, real scorer)
plan \ commitment C3C4
P1 marginal tight
P2 violated robust
Four-stop verdicts, no decimals on the face (hover a chip for its margin band). This is the Commander's view: C3 is geometric (K3-blind); C4 carries K6's propagated band.