ASSAY component gallery

Live components — the demonstrator's actual code, rendered over Meridian vignette fixture data (SPEC-04). Components, not product: no service, no compute, no plan exists behind this page. Every assessed value is banded with provenance welded on (ASSAY-DEC-9); the Meridian scenario is engineered fiction (ASSAY-DEC-8).

The knowledge base, K1–K14

K1 · v1 · answered
What depths and beach gradients constrain approach to Anchor Island?
3.757.5 m controlling depth11.25
observed · highJIPOE 1 · define the OEowner: CTF-M hydrographic cell
K2 · v1 · answered
What load will the Ledger–Anchor causeway bear?
1020–40 tonnes50
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: J-2 imagery cell
K3 · v1 · answered
What is the civil population in the Port Halcyon district?
2500035000–55000 persons65000
reported · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 1 · define the OEowner: J-2 civil affairs
K4 · v1 · answered
What is garrison strength and posture?
225300–450 effectives525
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
K5 · v1 · answered
What are tide and storm conditions D+0–D+4?
0.150000000000000020.4–0.9 m surge1.15
reported · highassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: METOC
K6 · v1 · answered
What sortie rate can the FAC squadron sustain?
02–6 sorties/day8
assessed · lowassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
K7 · v1 · answered
What is the air-defence engagement envelope at Carrick strip?
58–14 km17
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: J-2
K8 · v1 · answered
Is the Carrick Head battery's fire-control radar operational?
4.510–21 days to repair26.5
assessed · moderateassessment, not factsingle-sourceJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
K9 · v1 · answered
What are tide and storm conditions D+2–D+9?
0.75000000000000011.1–1.8 m surge2.15
reported · highassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: METOC
K10 · v1 · retired
Will the garrison capitulate by D+5?
open question — ranked for collection
assumption · lowassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
K11 · v1 · open
Are mines loaded on the minelayers at Ledger quay?
open question — ranked for collection
K12a · v1 · contested
How many sea mines does the garrison hold?
1530–60 mines75
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2 red cell
K12b · v1 · contested
How many sea mines does the garrison hold?
100140–220 mines260
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: Allied LNO
K13 · v1 · open
What is the daily radio-traffic volume from garrison HQ?
open question — ranked for collection
K14a · v1 · answered
How likely is red COA R1 (Fortress Halcyon)?
32.545–70 %82.5
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion
K14b · v1 · answered
How likely is red COA R2 (Strait Denial)?
1020–40 %50
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion
K14c · v1 · answered
How likely is red COA R3 (Spoiling Withdrawal)?
2.510–25 %32.5
assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion

Minimal S1 knowledge table (SPEC-05)

The knowledge service's four discipline moments, rendered by the actual firewall over the same fixtures: the refused K10 save (banner), the contested K12 pair (compile-blocking flag), K8's waiver and single-source markings, and confidence-lint cautions. Banded honesty holds — no bare assessed scalar appears (G2).

Save K10 (an assumption dressed as a hard constraint): the system declines laundered judgement.
IdQuestionAnswerProvenanceStatus
K1 What depths and beach gradients constrain approach to Anchor Island? 7.5 m controlling depth observed · highJIPOE 1 · define the OEowner: CTF-M hydrographic cell answered
K2 What load will the Ledger–Anchor causeway bear? 1020–40 tonnes50 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: J-2 imagery cell answered
K3 What is the civil population in the Port Halcyon district? 2500035000–55000 persons65000 reported · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 1 · define the OEowner: J-2 civil affairs answered
K4 What is garrison strength and posture? 225300–450 effectives525 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2 answered
K5 What are tide and storm conditions D+0–D+4? 0.150000000000000020.4–0.9 m surge1.15 reported · highassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: METOC answered
K6 What sortie rate can the FAC squadron sustain? 02–6 sorties/day8 assessed · lowassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2 answered
K7 What is the air-defence engagement envelope at Carrick strip? 58–14 km17 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: J-2 answered
K8 Is the Carrick Head battery's fire-control radar operational? 4.510–21 days to repair26.5 assessed · moderateassessment, not factsingle-sourceJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2waiver W-1 answered
K9 What are tide and storm conditions D+2–D+9? 0.75000000000000011.1–1.8 m surge2.15 reported · highassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: METOC answered
K11 Are mines loaded on the minelayers at Ledger quay? open — awaiting collection open
K12a How many sea mines does the garrison hold? 1530–60 mines75 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2 red cell contestedblocks compile
K12b How many sea mines does the garrison hold? 100140–220 mines260 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: Allied LNO contestedblocks compile
K13 What is the daily radio-traffic volume from garrison HQ? open — awaiting collection open
K14a How likely is red COA R1 (Fortress Halcyon)? 32.545–70 %82.5 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion answered
K14b How likely is red COA R2 (Strait Denial)? 1020–40 %50 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion answered
K14c How likely is red COA R3 (Spoiling Withdrawal)? 2.510–25 %32.5 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion answered

Compile — knowledge → CompiledWorld (SPEC-06)

The Stage-2 demo moment, run by the actual compile service. Contested never compiles (G5): with the K12 mine-stock pair disputed, the compile refuses rather than average an irreconcilable band into a channel —

Resolve the contest, and the recompile builds the world. Channels are stored sparse — a per-channel default plus named region overrides (the MCOO idiom; no dense 1.2M-cell surface is ever stored or hashed). Every channel value walks back to the named knowledge it came from, with its owner (G3). stamp daf11dafaedb6190… · 9 knowledge objects consumed · sparse channels (no dense cell stored)

regionvaluefrom knowledgeprovenance
mobility · default 01 transit factor2
approach 3.757.5 m controlling depth11.25 K1 observed · highJIPOE 1 · define the OEowner: CTF-M hydrographic cell
causeway 1020–40 tonnes50 K2 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: J-2 imagery cell
tide · default -10 m surge1 — no overrides (channel at default)
storm · default -10 m surge1
open_water 0.75000000000000011.1–1.8 m surge2.15 K9 steps 8–36reported · highassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: METOC
civil_density · default -10 persons1
port_district 2500035000–55000 persons65000 K3 reported · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 1 · define the OEowner: J-2 civil affairs
sensor · default -10 coverage index1
battery 4.510–21 days to repair26.5 K8 assessed · moderateassessment, not factsingle-sourceJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
threat · default -10 threat index1
air_defence 58–14 km17 K7 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: J-2
fac_waters 02–6 sorties/day8 K6 assessed · lowassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
garrison 225300–450 effectives525 K4 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2
mine_stock 1530–60 mines75 K12a assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 3 · evaluate the adversaryowner: J-2 red cell

Score & organise — the honest matrix (SPEC-07 · SPEC-08)

The Stage-3 demo moment, run end-to-end by the actual machinery: /plan/handful (SPEC-08) fans out over Meridian's four axes — approach, suppression, causeway, extraction — scores every candidate with the SPEC-07 scorer, and organises by banded non-domination into the genuinely distinct plans below. No author picked the set: a plan is kept only when no other conservatively beats it on every commitment (overlapping bands are honestly incomparable and both survive), and dropped only when strictly beaten everywhere — never on a scalar total (DEC-19). Each plan's reason is derived from the organiser, not captioned:

The same handful, as the S2 planner matrix. Verdicts are a four-stop scale — robust / marginal / tight / violated, one colour language, no decimals anywhere; the banded margin rides on hover, never a headline number (G2). Each verdict propagates its metric by interval arithmetic — worst-and-best-case on pure bands, no midpoint (DEC-15) — validated by the vignette §9 oracle cases (O-1–O-3 exact, O-4 containment). Pick a verdict, walk it to the assessment and owner it rests on: every cell was written with a scored_from edge back to the world, whose channels trace to named knowledge above. handful stamp f244e2ce7209c096… · 4 genuinely distinct plans, organised not authored · same stamp + seed ⇒ identical handful (G1) · every verdict carries a scored_from edge to the world (G3)

plan \ commitment C1C2C3C4C5C6
P-SwSoCcXe · sweep-first · stand-off · contest · pull-early robust robust marginal tight marginal robust
P-SeFfCcXe · strait-early · fires-forward · contest · pull-early robust robust violated robust marginal robust
P-SeSoCcXe · strait-early · stand-off · contest · pull-early robust robust marginal tight marginal robust
P-SwFfCcXe · sweep-first · fires-forward · contest · pull-early robust robust violated robust marginal robust

Relax — least-worst, never silence (SPEC-09)

The Stage-4 demo moment, run end-to-end by the actual machinery. Against the R3m world (both approaches mined, the causeway dropped) no plan satisfies C2, C3 and C4 together — by construction (vignette §6) — and the dropped causeway forecloses C5 ("taken intact") for every plan, so C5 rides in every sacrifice set as a scenario-imposed, computed loss (SPEC-20). /relax does not pick one compromise and hide the trade: it returns every inclusion-minimal way forward, each naming what it gives up in command language. The sacrifices are computed — a commitment is sacrificed only when the SPEC-07 scorer returns violated for it — not authored. Ranked least-worst first by the commander's ordinal tiers (must / should / prefer, no numeric weight — DEC-19): the two should-sacrifices lead, the must-sacrifice (C2, "the strait opens two days late") is ranked last but present — never dropped, never silent (G4). Plans that give up more{C2,C4,C5}, {C3,C4,C5} — are inclusion-dominated and never shown as separate options. relax stamp afffeecf288bac02… · 3 least-worst candidates over R3m, computed not authored · never empty, never a silent drop (G4) · tie-break stated (DEC-19) · each candidate cited_in the report back to named knowledge (G3)

  • least-worst #1 RX-fires C3 should C5 prefer
    Fires forward — suppress the FAC berths so the group crosses clean and on time, but the fires fall into the populated harbourfront where the craft berth among the fishing fleet. The Ledger causeway is already dropped in this branch; taking it intact is off the table.
    1. gives up: No fires into the populated port district (C3)
    2. gives up: The Ledger causeway is taken intact (C5)
  • least-worst #2 RX-parallel C4 should C5 prefer
    Parallel sweep — both approaches cleared at once, fastest to open the strait, but the amphibious group crosses the mined strait before the battery and FACs are suppressed. The Ledger causeway is already dropped in this branch; taking it intact is off the table.
    1. gives up: Amphibious group not exposed to unsuppressed battery or FAC threat (C4)
    2. gives up: The Ledger causeway is taken intact (C5)
  • least-worst #3 RX-sequential C2 must C5 prefer
    Sequential sweep — clear one approach then the other, keeping the group clear and the harbourfront quiet, but the strait opens at D+9, two days late. The Ledger causeway is already dropped in this branch; taking it intact is off the table.
    1. gives up: Halcyon Strait swept and open to deep-draught traffic by D+7 (C2)
    2. gives up: The Ledger causeway is taken intact (C5)

Tie-break — Same-tier sacrifices were ordered by commitment id (C3+C5 vs C4+C5) — a stated, commander-owned placeholder for within-tier priority, not a claim that one sacrifice outranks the other (ASSAY-DEC-19: no numeric weight; ties stated, never silent).

Scenario robustness — don't plan on most-likely (SPEC-10)

The Stage-5 demo moment (thesis C; JP 2-01.3: "don't plan on most-likely"). The generated handful scored across BASE, R1, R2, R3 — the adversary COA set from the vignette. Each cell is a four-stop verdict chip; a marks a verdict that dropped from its BASE value under that scenario ("collapse"). The worst column is the minimax: the plan's worst verdict for that commitment across all scenarios — a real verdict on a real scenario, not a weighted blend (DEC-15/19). Toggle R2 (Strait Denial) and watch the strait-early plan die on C1/C2 while robust alternatives hold. Above the grid, the attention block (SPEC-22) renders the K14a–c likelihood bands under the interval order: R1 (45–70 %) ranks strictly above the level pair {R2, R3}, whose bands visibly overlap — the system refuses, in public, to rank what the bands don't rank. The block is labelled "orders attention — never compiles" (knowledge model §9): the verdicts below owe it nothing. robustness stamp 0e216aabfed5f773… · 4 scenarios × 4 plans × 6 commitments · worst-case (minimax) verdict per plan×commitment · stamps_compatible=true

Adversary COA likelihood (J-2 assessment) orders attention — never compiles
R1 · Fortress Halcyon 0likelihood · 45–70 %100 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion
level — bands overlap; honestly unranked between themselves
R2 · Strait Denial 0likelihood · 20–40 %100 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion
R3 · Spoiling Withdrawal 0likelihood · 10–25 %100 assessed · moderateassessment, not factJIPOE 4 · determine adversary COAsowner: J-2 fusion
C1C2C3C4C5C6
plan \ scenario BASER1R2R3worstBASER1R2R3worstBASER1R2R3worstBASER1R2R3worstBASER1R2R3worstBASER1R2R3worst
P-SwSoCcXe · sweep-first · stand-off · contest · pull-early robust robust robust robust robust robust robust violated ▼ robust violated marginal marginal marginal marginal marginal tight tight robust tight tight marginal marginal marginal violated ▼ violated robust robust robust robust robust
P-SeFfCcXe · strait-early · fires-forward · contest · pull-early robust robust robust robust robust robust robust violated ▼ robust violated violated violated violated violated violated robust robust robust robust robust marginal marginal marginal violated ▼ violated robust robust robust robust robust
P-SeSoCcXe · strait-early · stand-off · contest · pull-early robust robust robust robust robust robust robust violated ▼ robust violated marginal marginal marginal marginal marginal tight tight robust tight tight marginal marginal marginal violated ▼ violated robust robust robust robust robust
P-SwFfCcXe · sweep-first · fires-forward · contest · pull-early robust robust robust robust robust robust robust violated ▼ robust violated violated violated violated violated violated robust robust robust robust robust marginal marginal marginal violated ▼ violated robust robust robust robust robust

Sensitivity — which beliefs bear load (SPEC-11)

The Stage-6 sensitivity demo moment (thesis E). Band-edge perturbation of each consumed knowledge object against the first handful plan: push each answer to its lo and hi edges, re-score, and count how many commitment verdicts change. K8 tops the ranking with single_source: true — its band-edge perturbation changes C4 verdicts via the battery fire-control threshold. The single_source flag is carried through from provenance, never used in the ranking arithmetic (DEC-19) — shown alongside so the commander sees the collection risk without it being laundered into a scalar. sensitivity stamp 55059bb7a57d38eb… · 9 knowledge objects perturbed · ranked by verdict-change count · single_source carried, not used in ranking (DEC-19)

Knowledge ID Changed Source Baseline Perturbed
K6 1 robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginalmarginalmarginalrobust
K1 0 robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust
K12a 0 robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust
K2 0 robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust
K3 0 robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust
K4 0 robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust
K7 0 robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust
K8 0 single-source robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust
K9 0 robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust robustrobustmarginaltightmarginalrobust

Discrimination — which questions separate COAs (SPEC-12)

The Stage-6 discrimination demo moment (thesis D). COA-pair band separation over open questions' expected-answer miniatures (DEC-18): for each open question with expected_answers, measure how well the answer bands separate each pair of adversary COAs. K11 ranks above K13 despite higher collection cost — the R1/R2 expected-answer bands are disjoint (mines loaded vs not), while K13's radio-traffic bands overlap across all COAs. Cost is shown alongside, never collapsed with value (DEC-19): the commander sees both and decides. No Shannon entropy, no VOI, no scenario weights (research note 08-analysis.md §3). discrimination stamp a0d0916b1a4cf0b7… · 2 open questions ranked · COA-pair separation over expected-answer bands (DEC-18) · cost alongside, never collapsed (DEC-19) · operative pairs derived from the verdict tensor (SPEC-23, never curated)

operative: R1↔R2 — P-SwSoCcXe's C2, C4; P-SeFfCcXe's C2; P-SeSoCcXe's C2, C4; P-SwFfCcXe's C2 turn on it R1↔R3 — P-SwSoCcXe's C5; P-SeFfCcXe's C5; P-SeSoCcXe's C5; P-SwFfCcXe's C5 turn on it R2↔R3 — P-SwSoCcXe's C2, C4, C5; P-SeFfCcXe's C2, C5; P-SeSoCcXe's C2, C4, C5; P-SwFfCcXe's C2, C5 turn on it
every pair operative — the operative ranking coincides with all-pairs separation.
Question ID Operative Separation Best Separation (all pairs) Cost Per-pair Separation
K11 0.49999999999999994 fraction of stock staged 0.49999999999999994 fraction of stock staged 2–4 det-days R1↔R20.49999999999999994 fraction of stock staged✓ discriminatesoperative
R1↔R30.3 fraction of stock staged✓ discriminatesoperative
R2↔R3-0.20000000000000007 fraction of stock staged~ weak — could discriminateoperative
expected answers (who says the COA would look like that)
R10–0.2 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R20.7–1 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R30.5–0.9 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
K13 -40 msgs/day -40 msgs/day 0.2–0.5 det-days R1↔R2-40 msgs/day~ weak — could discriminateoperative
R1↔R3-50 msgs/day✕ cannot discriminateoperative
R2↔R3-50 msgs/day~ weak — could discriminateoperative
expected answers (who says the COA would look like that)
R140–90 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R250–110 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R330–100 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell

Decision support — decisions in time (SPEC-24)

The keystone demo moment (review §4.2 — "the artefact a J-3 actually recognises"). The doctrinal decision support matrix, derived, never drawn (research note 12): a commitment is a decision point iff its verdict turns on open information — scenario-divergent across the adversary COA set, or margin-class under the selected world. The commit step is read from the plan's own geometry (the first route leg whose channel read differs across the scenario worlds — past it, the branch is taken); LTIOV = commit step − lead (lead 0, stated); each collection option renders in time (slack as a step count) or the honest red "cannot answer in time" with its arithmetic visible — never dropped. On P2 (sweep-first) the port decision (C1) holds open to step 10 and DET KINGFISHER's step-8 report arrives in time with 2 steps of slack — where strait-early (P1) commits at step 4, a day before recon can report: the DSM shows, computed, why sweep-first buys decision space. The system ranks and derives, never tasks — tasking KINGFISHER is a human act with its own commitment consequence (C6). decision-support stamp 2c5848b43c2c531a… · 3 decision points, derived not drawn · LTIOV = commit step − lead (lead 0, stated) · red states rendered with their arithmetic, never dropped (G4) · every row cited_in back to its evidence (G3) · no urgency scalar anywhere (DEC-19)

derived for P2 · selected world BASE · adversary vocabulary R1/R2/R3 · lead 0 (v1 — a non-zero lead is an authored assessment, not an engine constant) · no /select selection exists — derived for the viewer-chosen P2 (sweep-first)
Decision pointEvidence (why it is a DP)Commit step · LTIOVDiscriminating questions · collection (ranked by separation — tasking is a human act)Tripwires
C1 must
Relief ships alongside Port Halcyon by D+10
R1robustR2violated
R2violatedR3robust
step 10
LTIOV 10
FE-PACKHORSE enters the leg at (26, 25) at step 10 — the mobility read differs across R1/R2/R3 from there; the branch is taken.
K11Are mines loaded on the minelayers at Ledger quay?
R1↔R2✓ discriminates0.5 fraction of stock stagedR2↔R3~ could discriminate-0.2 fraction of stock staged
expected answers (who says the COA would look like that)
R10–0.2 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R20.7–1 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R30.5–0.9 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
DET KINGFISHER close reconnaissance of Ledger quaycost2–4 det-daysin time — earliest result 8 ≤ LTIOV 10 (slack 2 steps)
K13What is the daily radio-traffic volume from garrison HQ?
R1↔R2~ could discriminate-40 msgs/dayR2↔R3~ could discriminate-50 msgs/day
expected answers (who says the COA would look like that)
R140–90 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R250–110 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R330–100 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
Standoff interceptcost0.2–0.5 det-daysin time — earliest result 4 ≤ LTIOV 10 (slack 6 steps)
C2 must
Halcyon Strait swept and open to deep-draught traffic by D+7
R1robustR2violated
R2violatedR3robust
step 2
LTIOV 2
FE-BROOM enters the leg at (26, 25) at step 2 — the mobility read differs across R1/R2/R3 from there; the branch is taken.
K11Are mines loaded on the minelayers at Ledger quay?
R1↔R2✓ discriminates0.5 fraction of stock stagedR2↔R3~ could discriminate-0.2 fraction of stock staged
expected answers (who says the COA would look like that)
R10–0.2 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R20.7–1 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R30.5–0.9 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
DET KINGFISHER close reconnaissance of Ledger quaycost2–4 det-dayscannot answer in time — earliest result 8 > LTIOV 2
K13What is the daily radio-traffic volume from garrison HQ?
R1↔R2~ could discriminate-40 msgs/dayR2↔R3~ could discriminate-50 msgs/day
expected answers (who says the COA would look like that)
R140–90 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R250–110 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R330–100 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
Standoff interceptcost0.2–0.5 det-dayscannot answer in time — earliest result 4 > LTIOV 2
C5 prefer
The Ledger causeway is taken intact
R1marginalR3violated
R2marginalR3violated
BASEmarginalmargin0 boolean
step 56world-decided
LTIOV 56
world-decided — the plan takes no branch; the causeway_intact read happens at the horizon (step 56). Information is of value until then.
K11Are mines loaded on the minelayers at Ledger quay?
R1↔R3✓ discriminates0.3 fraction of stock stagedR2↔R3~ could discriminate-0.2 fraction of stock staged
expected answers (who says the COA would look like that)
R10–0.2 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R20.7–1 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R30.5–0.9 fraction of stock stagedassessed · moderateassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
DET KINGFISHER close reconnaissance of Ledger quaycost2–4 det-daysin time — earliest result 8 ≤ LTIOV 56 (slack 48 steps)
K13What is the daily radio-traffic volume from garrison HQ?
R1↔R3✕ cannot discriminate-50 msgs/dayR2↔R3~ could discriminate-50 msgs/day
expected answers (who says the COA would look like that)
R140–90 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R250–110 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
R330–100 msgs/dayassessed · lowassessment, not factowner: J-2 red cell
Standoff interceptcost0.2–0.5 det-daysin time — earliest result 4 ≤ LTIOV 56 (slack 52 steps)
⏱ K9lapses at 36 — before the commit step (56)
reported · highassessment, not factJIPOE 2 · describe OE effectsowner: METOC
the world under this decision will contain lapsed knowledge at decision time — re-validate before committing

Staleness — what goes stale when knowledge changes (SPEC-13)

The Stage-6 staleness demo moment (thesis F). Transitive forward trace walk from K9 (the storm-window knowledge that superseded K5): follow every downstream edge — consumed_by, scored_from, compiled_into — using the EDGE_ORIENTATION map from traceView.ts. The walk flags exactly the dependent verdicts and nothing else. It does not recompute — the constitution says flags, then humans decide. staleness stamp 90afb9dedfe9ea2f… · 98 verdicts + 1 worlds invalidated · transitive walk from K9 · flags only, no recompute (constitution)

444 trace chains walked, 444 complete
Worlds (1)
W-BASE
Verdicts (98)
V-P-SeFfCcXe-C1-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXe-C2-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXe-C3-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXe-C4-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXe-C5-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXe-C6-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXt-C1-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXt-C2-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXt-C3-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXt-C4-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXt-C5-BASEV-P-SeFfCcXt-C6-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXe-C1-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXe-C2-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXe-C3-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXe-C4-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXe-C5-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXe-C6-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXt-C1-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXt-C2-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXt-C3-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXt-C4-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXt-C5-BASEV-P-SeFfCbXt-C6-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXe-C1-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXe-C2-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXe-C3-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXe-C4-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXe-C5-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXe-C6-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXt-C1-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXt-C2-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXt-C3-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXt-C4-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXt-C5-BASEV-P-SeSoCcXt-C6-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXe-C1-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXe-C2-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXe-C3-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXe-C4-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXe-C5-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXe-C6-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXt-C1-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXt-C2-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXt-C3-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXt-C4-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXt-C5-BASEV-P-SeSoCbXt-C6-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXe-C1-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXe-C2-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXe-C3-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXe-C4-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXe-C5-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXe-C6-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXt-C1-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXt-C2-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXt-C3-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXt-C4-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXt-C5-BASEV-P-SwFfCcXt-C6-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXe-C1-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXe-C2-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXe-C3-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXe-C4-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXe-C5-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXe-C6-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXt-C1-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXt-C2-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXt-C3-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXt-C4-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXt-C5-BASEV-P-SwFfCbXt-C6-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXe-C1-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXe-C2-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXe-C3-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXe-C4-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXe-C5-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXe-C6-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXt-C1-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXt-C2-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXt-C3-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXt-C4-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXt-C5-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXt-C6-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXe-C1-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXe-C2-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXe-C3-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXe-C4-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXe-C5-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXe-C6-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXt-C1-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXt-C2-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXt-C3-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXt-C4-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXt-C5-BASEV-P-SwSoCbXt-C6-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXe-C4-BASEV-P-SwSoCcXe-C4-BASE
Scores (98)
PS-P-SeFfCcXe-C1-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXe-C2-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXe-C3-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXe-C5-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXe-C6-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXt-C1-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXt-C2-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXt-C3-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXt-C4-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXt-C5-BASEPS-P-SeFfCcXt-C6-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXe-C1-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXe-C2-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXe-C3-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXe-C5-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXe-C6-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXt-C1-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXt-C2-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXt-C3-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXt-C4-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXt-C5-BASEPS-P-SeFfCbXt-C6-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXe-C1-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXe-C2-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXe-C3-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXe-C5-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXe-C6-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXt-C1-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXt-C2-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXt-C3-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXt-C4-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXt-C5-BASEPS-P-SeSoCcXt-C6-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXe-C1-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXe-C2-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXe-C3-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXe-C5-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXe-C6-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXt-C1-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXt-C2-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXt-C3-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXt-C4-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXt-C5-BASEPS-P-SeSoCbXt-C6-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXe-C1-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXe-C2-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXe-C3-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXe-C5-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXe-C6-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXt-C1-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXt-C2-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXt-C3-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXt-C4-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXt-C5-BASEPS-P-SwFfCcXt-C6-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXe-C1-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXe-C2-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXe-C3-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXe-C5-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXe-C6-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXt-C1-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXt-C2-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXt-C3-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXt-C4-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXt-C5-BASEPS-P-SwFfCbXt-C6-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXe-C1-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXe-C2-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXe-C3-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXe-C5-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXe-C6-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXt-C1-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXt-C2-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXt-C3-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXt-C4-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXt-C5-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXt-C6-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXe-C1-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXe-C2-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXe-C3-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXe-C5-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXe-C6-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXt-C1-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXt-C2-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXt-C3-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXt-C4-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXt-C5-BASEPS-P-SwSoCbXt-C6-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXe-C4-BASEPS-P-SwSoCcXe-C4-BASE

Verdict legibility — the mapping, the consequence, the challenge (SPEC-25)

The legibility slice, over machinery ASSAY already has (review §3.1/§3.3, note 14). First, the verdict legend (US1): the four-stop mapping laid open, CRT-style — each verdict a region of the signed-margin sign rule, illustrated by the frozen oracle O-3 sweep (the verdict changes only at the band edges 9 and 13, never inside). It renders a mapping, never a score (DEC-19), and is oracle-derived — a change to it is a register/oracle matter, not a data event.

Verdict legend — how a margin band becomes one of four words (the mapping, laid open)

A commitment reduces to a signed margin band — satisfied when the margin is ≥ 0, its low endpoint the worst case. The four-stop verdict is read off the signs of that band's endpoints only — no midpoint, no interior cut, no score (DEC-15/19). It is a lookup, like a wargame's Combat Results Table: inspectable, never a hidden judgement.

verdictwhenmeaning
violated m_hi < 0 even the best case already fails — below the band, decisively failed
tight m_lo < 0 ≤ m_hi the band straddles the line — neither definitely fine nor definitely failed
marginal m_lo = 0 ≤ m_hi the worst case sits exactly on the line — the boundary verdict
robust m_lo > 0 the worst case still satisfies, with room — above the band, decisively fine

The mapping's honesty property, shown not asserted — the frozen oracle O-3 sweep: strait_open_step [9,13] against at_most T, T swept 8→14. The verdict changes only at the band edges 9 and 13 (◆), never strictly inside:

T=8
violated
T=9 ◆
tight
T=10
tight
T=11
tight
T=12
tight
T=13 ◆
marginal
T=14
robust

Footnote — marginal fires only when the worst-case margin sits exactly on the line (m_lo = 0) — a coincidence of band edge and threshold that, in a continuous domain, is measure-zero. It is the boundary verdict at the upper band edge, never an interior transition. The illustration derives from the frozen O-3 constants, not live data — a change to it is a register/oracle matter.

Next, the consequence preview (US2, the substantive build): arm a mutating act — here resolve K12 — and see the real diff before committing, computed by the live pipeline over a byte-faithful shadow of the store, never an estimate (Into the Breach's telegraphed-consequence contract applied to knowledge work). The ghost persists nothing, emits no delta, mutates no stamp; the previewed diff equals the post-commit glow set element-for-element (G1/DEC-34) — the ghost is what will happen, not a picture of what might.

Previewed — not applied · resolve the K12 contest
On commit, exactly these 250 unit(s) will glow — the preview IS the glow set (G1/DEC-34).
No verdict cell changes word; 250 unit(s) would glow (rows, stamps, feed).

The challenge affordance (US4): on any verdict, one act re-renders the SPEC-11 sensitivity ranking scoped to that verdict — the knowledge that, pushed to its band edge, flips it, with single-source flags co-shown and a deep link to the knowledge row. It routes challenge, it does not adjudicate it (the Red Teaming Handbook's warning against lip-service challenge). On Meridian under BASE the honest C4 flipper is K6 (the documented band-propagation) — the plans route clear of the threatened water, so K8 is genuinely insensitive there; surfacing it would be false.

Challenge · P1 · C4 (tight) — key assumptions
These items, each pushed to its band edge, change this verdict (a re-render of the sensitivity ranking, SPEC-11 — computed, never opined). Click one to open its knowledge row and challenge it there.
K6 pushed to its band edge, flips this verdict tight → marginal

Finally, the per-role action menus (US5): who may do what, made legible — each role's legal write verbs, marked live / runs on recompute / not yet built (never a dead button faking a write, DEC-4). The observer exposes no write — the bridge watches the seam, it never touches it. Menus reorganise what the seam already permits (DEC-33); they never restrict.

Role actions — J-2 (intelligence)
create runs on recompute author a new knowledge object (gated by the encoding firewall)
contest live dispute two irreconcilable answers — blocks compile until resolved (G5)
resolve live lift a survivor from an open contest
supersede live replace an assessed answer with a new immutable version (DEC-21)
collect-mark not yet built task collection against an open question — a human act with its own C6 consequences (KINGFISHER discipline)
Menus reorganise what the seam already permits (DEC-33) — never restrict. Every wired verb routes through the same honesty gates as before; deferred verbs are named, never faked (DEC-4).
Role actions — J-3/5 (plans)
compile runs on recompute materialise the world from knowledge (refuses on contested — G5)
generate-handful runs on recompute fan out a strategy-biased handful of distinct plans
score runs on recompute run each plan through the scorer against the world
relax runs on recompute turn an infeasible set into a least-worst frontier (G4)
Menus reorganise what the seam already permits (DEC-33) — never restrict. Every wired verb routes through the same honesty gates as before; deferred verbs are named, never faked (DEC-4).
Role actions — COMD
select not yet built commit to a plan (POST /select) — a human decision the system never makes for you
waive not yet built admit a value under an explicit, recorded waiver — the exception made visible, never laundered
Menus reorganise what the seam already permits (DEC-33) — never restrict. Every wired verb routes through the same honesty gates as before; deferred verbs are named, never faked (DEC-4).
Role actions — OBSERVER / bridge
Read & trace only. This role exposes no write verb — the bridge watches the seam, it never touches it. That an observer may do nothing is the C2 point made legible (SPEC-25).

Generated from fixtures/ by npm run gallery · identifiers frozen per assay-vignette.md §8 · compile per research note docs/research/02-compile.md · score per docs/research/03-score-plan.md · relax per docs/research/04-relaxation.md · robustness per docs/research/06-robustness.md · analysis per docs/research/08-analysis.md · attention per docs/research/11-attention.md · decision support per docs/research/12-decision-support.md · legibility per docs/research/14-legibility.md