preview of PR #28 · b7ea4b8
Stage 4 built · Stage 5 next Demonstrator, not a product Meridian Archipelago — engineered fiction

ASSAY.

Assessment Semantics & Scenario Analysis

Intelligence preparation produces a mass of judged questions and answers. ASSAY's premise: those answers can become objective, quantifiable, typed objects — and be exploited by planning machinery honestly, without laundering judgement into false precision.

What ASSAY is

A shared spine, honest by construction

ASSAY explores optimisation techniques for command-and-control planning, anchored in the JIPOE/IPOE doctrine family (JP 2-01.3, ATP 2-01.3, AIntP-17). It is a deliberate re-derivation of a sibling project's principles against a new problem domain: intelligence-fed course-of-action analysis. Where a principle survives, it is validated as general; where it does not, that is a finding.

Knowledge typed · banded Compile stamped world Score banded verdicts Analyse sensitivity · staleness Surfaces four role views every value traces backward to named knowledge, with a named owner
demonstrated in progress planned

See it now

The published demonstrator

An early interactive surface now runs the real pipeline in your browser (SPEC-16), alongside the static surfaces rendered over real Meridian fixtures. All of these are live, running on the same code the build uses.

Interactive · SPEC-16

The live demonstrator

Four role tabs over one in-browser pipeline. Resolve a live contest and watch the real compile → score → relax recompute, with a "glow" that draws propagation honesty (G6) across the roles it touches. Edit an assessed band and see it refuse if dishonest.

Live components

Component gallery

The demonstrator's actual components — band pills, provenance chips, and the minimal S1 knowledge table with its four discipline moments — over content-addressed fixtures (SPEC-05 / SPEC-14). Not mockups: the shipped code.

Role surfaces

UI wireframes

The four role surfaces on Meridian data at the D+2 tableau moment: K9 supersedes K5, K12 contested. Frozen vignette identifiers only — a rendered value the vignette does not define is treated as a defect.

Interactive · built

System-flow infographic

A stakeholder explainer of how information flows — objects, typed connectors, and gates — with a guided tour and a bounded sandbox driving the real seam (compile, score, relax). One canvas, three zoom layers; auto-recompute is stamped and attributed, never silent. Behaviours land under a flagged register candidate (ratify-after).

Proposal · interactive walkthrough

Flow schematic (engineering drawing)

The same spec drawn as one apparatus — knowledge piped in, transformed through labelled stations, gates as inline decision valves, every band on a gauge. A wizard steps the six-beat walkthrough: press Next and watch data flow, the gate fire, the stamp flip. An engineering-flowchart alternative to the swimlane form above.

Fiction, deliberately. Every surface renders the Meridian Archipelago — an engineered scenario (ASSAY-DEC-8). No service, no plan, and no real operational picture sits behind these surfaces.

The objectives

Eight theses over one environment

ASSAY builds one spine and one small set of role surfaces, then explores a catalogue of theses across them rather than building each separately. A thesis is only ever explored — never claimed proven.

APipelineJIPOE knowledge can flow into an optimiser honestly — typed encoding + compile path.explored
BLeast-worstWhen commitments conflict, minimal relaxation yields a defensible plan-as-argument.explored
CRobustnessScoring plans across the adversary COA set beats optimising against most-likely.planned
DCollectionOptimisation can tell you where to look — COA-hypothesis discrimination.planned
ESensitivity / deceptionThe system can identify which beliefs the decision is leaning on.planned
FStalenessA changed answer identifies exactly what it invalidates.planned
GInterdependencySystems-perspective (PMESII) knowledge made computable — highest false-precision risk.horizon
HReactive redA responding adversary changes which plans survive.horizon

Where it is · plans becoming achievements

Progress the repository can back

The build runs in seven stages — lap first, depth after — behind a spine-complete gate. This tracker records only what the repository actually contains; a stage cannot show "building" before its research note is published.

Stage 0 Foundations — store, trace graph, type-gen, fixtures done
Stage 1 Knowledge & discipline — band pill, provenance chip, encoding firewall done
Stage 2 Compile — knowledge → stamped world channels done
Stage 3 Score, then plan — banded verdicts, oracle cases, the generated handful done
Stage 4 Least-worst — relaxation (thesis B) done
·Stage 5 Scenario robustness — (thesis C) planned
·Stage 6 Analysis loops — sensitivity, discrimination, staleness (D, E, F) planned
🚩  Spine-complete gate — not yet reached. An early interactive demonstrator already runs the real pipeline in-browser ahead of the gate (open it — SPEC-16, the front-end lane); passing the gate makes it the primary Demo and opens Stage 7 (surfaces & narratives).

Reading

How the work is explained

Each stage gate publishes a research note and a dated update; where a milestone warrants it, that update grows into an article that walks through what the slice actually does — with a working embed of the new component or algorithm, never a screenshot (comms plan §6).

The stance

Nothing shown as done that isn't

ASSAY's discipline is visible in its interface and in this page. The same rule governs both: no assessed quantity is rendered as fact, and no planned capability is rendered as shipped.

2–5 days · low
Banded honesty

No scalar from an assessed source ever reaches a surface unbanded. Bands are pure closed intervals — no stored midpoint, no distributional claim. Only directly-observed values and commander's thresholds may be scalar.

ASSAY-DEC-n
Register-first

Every decision is recorded in the register before it is cited anywhere else. Peer documents — and this page — are projections of it, kept current by batch propagation, never rival sources of truth.

why? →
Every number can be traced

Any verdict, score, or ranking opens a backward walk that terminates in named knowledge objects with named owners. A chain that dead-ends is a bug surfaced, not hidden.

Go deeper

The canonical set

ASSAY is docs-first: the reasoning is the asset. Start with the vignette and the walkthrough; the register holds every decision.